{
  "id": "disposition-matchup/disruption--mirror",
  "kind": "matchup-analysis",
  "lang": "en",
  "title": "Disruption mirror — Outmanoeuvre",
  "subjects": [
    "gdm:disposition/disruption",
    "gdm:primary/disruption/outmanoeuvre"
  ],
  "sides": {
    "side0": {
      "disposition": "disruption",
      "card": "gdm:primary/disruption/outmanoeuvre",
      "scoringCheckpoint": "mixed",
      "holdWindow": 0
    },
    "side1": {
      "disposition": "disruption",
      "card": "gdm:primary/disruption/outmanoeuvre",
      "scoringCheckpoint": "mixed",
      "holdWindow": 0
    }
  },
  "ratings": [
    {
      "metric": "edge",
      "value": 10,
      "confidence": "high",
      "basis": "theory",
      "rationale": "Mirror: identical cards."
    },
    {
      "metric": "ceiling",
      "side": 0,
      "value": 20,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "basis": "theory",
      "rationale": "An escalating per-objective engine (4 then 5 then 6 VP) on top of a recurring 10 VP for the enemy home is the highest ceiling in the matrix."
    },
    {
      "metric": "ceiling",
      "side": 1,
      "value": 20,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "basis": "theory",
      "rationale": "Mirror: both players hold this card, so the profile is identical on each side."
    },
    {
      "metric": "floor",
      "side": 0,
      "value": 9,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "basis": "theory",
      "rationale": "Home is excluded from every line, so a player pinned in their own deployment zone scores almost nothing."
    },
    {
      "metric": "floor",
      "side": 1,
      "value": 9,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "basis": "theory",
      "rationale": "Mirror: both players hold this card, so the profile is identical on each side."
    },
    {
      "metric": "tempo",
      "side": 0,
      "value": 12,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "basis": "theory",
      "rationale": "Averaged across a card that flips mid-game: rounds 2-3 score at your Command phase (durability), rounds 4-5 at the end of your turn (burst) — see the body and the engine-note claim."
    },
    {
      "metric": "tempo",
      "side": 1,
      "value": 12,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "basis": "theory",
      "rationale": "Mirror: both players hold this card, so the same mid-game tempo flip applies to each side."
    },
    {
      "metric": "complexity",
      "side": 0,
      "value": 16,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "basis": "theory",
      "rationale": "The mid-game timing flip is the single easiest thing to misplay in the whole matrix."
    },
    {
      "metric": "complexity",
      "side": 1,
      "value": 16,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "basis": "theory",
      "rationale": "Mirror: both players hold this card, so the profile is identical on each side."
    },
    {
      "metric": "exposure",
      "side": 0,
      "value": 18,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "basis": "theory",
      "rationale": "Your home objective is worth nothing and the enemy home objective is worth 10 VP a turn: every incentive on the card pushes your whole army onto ground the opponent controls. The most expensive card in the matrix to run."
    },
    {
      "metric": "activationCost",
      "side": 0,
      "value": 12,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "basis": "theory",
      "rationale": "Wide holds tie up bodies, but nothing asks a unit to stop shooting."
    },
    {
      "metric": "exposure",
      "side": 1,
      "value": 18,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "basis": "theory",
      "rationale": "Your home objective is worth nothing and the enemy home objective is worth 10 VP a turn: every incentive on the card pushes your whole army onto ground the opponent controls. The most expensive card in the matrix to run."
    },
    {
      "metric": "activationCost",
      "side": 1,
      "value": 12,
      "confidence": "medium",
      "basis": "theory",
      "rationale": "Wide holds tie up bodies, but nothing asks a unit to stop shooting."
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "type": "engine-note",
      "phase": "whole-game",
      "text": "The hold engine escalates: 4 VP per objective in round 1, 5 VP in rounds 2-3, 6 VP from round 4 — and every line excludes your home objective, so a body sitting at home earns nothing all game."
    },
    {
      "type": "engine-note",
      "phase": "whole-game",
      "text": "The scoring checkpoint MOVES: rounds 2-3 score at your Command phase, rounds 4-5 at the end of your turn. Early holds must survive the enemy turn; late grabs pay immediately."
    },
    {
      "type": "engine-note",
      "phase": "whole-game",
      "text": "Controlling the opponent home objective pays 10 VP at the end of any turn — repeatable, and larger than 2 objectives at the peak rate."
    },
    {
      "type": "threat",
      "phase": "whole-game",
      "text": "Their home raid is worth 10 VP a turn to them, and your own home is worth 0 VP to you — you cannot justify a garrison on scoring grounds alone, only on denial grounds."
    },
    {
      "type": "cost",
      "side": 0,
      "phase": "whole-game",
      "text": "This card moves its checkpoint during the game, so the same grab costs a full enemy turn early and nothing late — price the grab accordingly before committing a unit to it."
    },
    {
      "type": "cost",
      "side": 1,
      "phase": "whole-game",
      "text": "This card moves its checkpoint during the game, so the same grab costs a full enemy turn early and nothing late — price the grab accordingly before committing a unit to it."
    },
    {
      "type": "terrain",
      "phase": "deployment",
      "text": "Measured across all 45 transcribed layouts: a central objective can be held from a spot only 4.6% of the enemy deployment zone can see (best board 0%), while taking an enemy home objective means standing where a median of 47.7% of their deployment zone has line of sight, rising to 91.7% on the most exposed board. Cards that pay for enemy home objectives are charging you that difference, and the board decides the price.",
      "refs": [
        "rule:13.08",
        "rule:14.02"
      ]
    },
    {
      "type": "disruption",
      "side": 0,
      "phase": "whole-game",
      "text": "Their home line is worth 10 VP a turn to them and their own home is worth zero, so they will not defend it and neither can you afford to ignore yours. Screen your back line from round 2 — it is the single highest-value defensive investment in the matrix. Then, in rounds 2-3 only, remember their holds have to survive your turn: everything you shoot off a marker before their Command phase is 5 VP denied. From round 4 that window closes, so front-load your denial."
    },
    {
      "type": "list-building",
      "side": 0,
      "phase": "list-building",
      "text": "Disruption needs: Speed above all. Nothing on this card rewards sitting still, and your home objective pays zero. A reserve or deep-strike package held back for the round 4-5 burst grabs. One cheap screen for your own home — purely defensive, purely worth it against a 10 VP line. Durable mid-board units for rounds 2-3, when holds must survive an enemy turn."
    },
    {
      "type": "layout",
      "phase": "deployment",
      "text": "All three boards for this pairing are transcribed and measured. Layout 1 (bands on the short edges) reads 9/20 for openness, Layout 2 (diagonal across the long axis) reads 6/20 for openness, Layout 3 (diagonal across the short axis) reads 4/20 for openness. Taking a home marker off the opponent costs 40.2% deployment-zone exposure on Layout 2 and 91.7% on Layout 1 — the same play, priced very differently. Central markers stay the safest ground on all three, bottoming out at 0.9% on Layout 3."
    }
  ],
  "listRequirements": [
    {
      "side": 0,
      "role": "Speed above all",
      "trait": [
        "speed"
      ],
      "phase": "list-building",
      "why": "Speed above all."
    },
    {
      "side": 0,
      "role": "A reserve or deep-strike package held back for the round 4-5 burst grabs",
      "count": 4,
      "trait": [
        "deep-strike"
      ],
      "phase": "list-building",
      "matchupSpecific": true,
      "why": "A reserve or deep-strike package held back for the round 4-5 burst grabs."
    },
    {
      "side": 0,
      "role": "One cheap screen for your own home",
      "count": 1,
      "trait": [
        "screening",
        "expendable-bodies"
      ],
      "phase": "list-building",
      "why": "One cheap screen for your own home — purely defensive, purely worth it against a 10 VP line."
    },
    {
      "side": 0,
      "role": "Durable mid-board units for rounds 2-3",
      "count": 2,
      "trait": [
        "durability"
      ],
      "phase": "list-building",
      "why": "Durable mid-board units for rounds 2-3, when holds must survive an enemy turn."
    }
  ],
  "dependsOn": {
    "corpus": "2026-05-09 23:42:21",
    "gdmPack": "GDM"
  },
  "status": "draft",
  "sources": [],
  "body": "## The matchup in a nutshell\n\nThe most explosive card in the game and the easiest to misplay. Your own home objective is worth **nothing**, the enemy's is worth **10 VP a turn**, and the hold engine escalates from 4 to 5 to 6 VP per objective as the game goes on. The trap is in the timing: the checkpoint moves from your Command phase to the end of your turn in round 4, and players who do not notice leave a fortune on the table.\n\n| | Disruption (side 0) | Disruption (side 1) |\n|---|---|---|\n| Card | Outmanoeuvre | Outmanoeuvre |\n| Scores at | mixed | mixed |\n| Hold window | 0 enemy turns | 0 enemy turns |\n| Exposure | 18/20 | 18/20 |\n| Activation cost | 12/20 | 12/20 |\n\nA hold window of zero changes where the fight is. Nobody has to survive anything: you walk on, the turn ends, you get paid. Which means **there is no window to shoot them off the marker afterwards** — by the time it matters, they have already banked it. Denial on this card happens before the grab, not after. You are not buying reactions. You are buying space.\n\n## Playing Disruption\n\n*Your card: Outmanoeuvre. Scoring checkpoint: mixed. Hold window: 0 enemy turns.*\n\n### How you score\n\nRound 1, grab wide — 4 VP per objective. Rounds 2 and 3, hold at 5 VP per objective, checked at your Command phase. From round 4, 6 VP per objective checked at the **end of your turn**, which means a late grab pays instantly and never has to survive a reply. And all game long, 10 VP at the end of any turn you hold their home objective.\n\n### What it costs you\n\nRounds 2-3 demand durability — those holds must survive a full enemy turn. Rounds 4-5 demand the opposite: hold your movement back and take everything on your own turn, because nothing has to live afterwards. Playing rounds 4-5 the way you played rounds 2-3 costs 12 to 18 VP. Exposure 18/20, activation cost 12/20.\n\n### How you break them\n\nTheir home line is worth 10 VP a turn to them and their own home is worth zero, so **they will not defend it and neither can you afford to ignore yours**. Screen your back line from round 2 — it is the single highest-value defensive investment in the matrix. Then, in rounds 2-3 only, remember their holds have to survive your turn: everything you shoot off a marker before their Command phase is 5 VP denied. From round 4 that window closes, so front-load your denial.\n\n### What your list needs\n\n- Speed above all. Nothing on this card rewards sitting still, and your home objective pays zero.\n- A reserve or deep-strike package held back for the round 4-5 burst grabs.\n- One cheap screen for your own home — purely defensive, purely worth it against a 10 VP line.\n- Durable mid-board units for rounds 2-3, when holds must survive an enemy turn.\n\n## Playing Disruption\n\n*Your card: Outmanoeuvre. Scoring checkpoint: mixed. Hold window: 0 enemy turns.*\n\n### How you score\n\nRound 1, grab wide — 4 VP per objective. Rounds 2 and 3, hold at 5 VP per objective, checked at your Command phase. From round 4, 6 VP per objective checked at the **end of your turn**, which means a late grab pays instantly and never has to survive a reply. And all game long, 10 VP at the end of any turn you hold their home objective.\n\n### What it costs you\n\nRounds 2-3 demand durability — those holds must survive a full enemy turn. Rounds 4-5 demand the opposite: hold your movement back and take everything on your own turn, because nothing has to live afterwards. Playing rounds 4-5 the way you played rounds 2-3 costs 12 to 18 VP. Exposure 18/20, activation cost 12/20.\n\n### How you break them\n\nTheir home line is worth 10 VP a turn to them and their own home is worth zero, so **they will not defend it and neither can you afford to ignore yours**. Screen your back line from round 2 — it is the single highest-value defensive investment in the matrix. Then, in rounds 2-3 only, remember their holds have to survive your turn: everything you shoot off a marker before their Command phase is 5 VP denied. From round 4 that window closes, so front-load your denial.\n\n### What your list needs\n\n- Speed above all. Nothing on this card rewards sitting still, and your home objective pays zero.\n- A reserve or deep-strike package held back for the round 4-5 burst grabs.\n- One cheap screen for your own home — purely defensive, purely worth it against a 10 VP line.\n- Durable mid-board units for rounds 2-3, when holds must survive an enemy turn.\n\n## The three layouts\n\nDisruption mirror is played on one of three boards, and they are not the same game. All three are transcribed and measured below.\n\n| Board | Deployment | Openness | Centre exposure | Cost to raid a home marker | No-man's-land |\n|---|---|---|---|---|---|\n| Layout 1 | bands on the short edges | 9/20 | 4.6% | 91.7% | 20.4% |\n| Layout 2 | diagonal across the long axis | 6/20 | 4% | 40.2% | — |\n| Layout 3 | diagonal across the short axis | 4/20 | 0.9% | 54.6% | 2.7% |\n\n- **Layout 1** — bands on the short edges, openness **9/20**. The middle is free real estate: there is a legal spot within range of a central marker that only **4.6%** of the enemy deployment zone can see. Home markers are a fortress: taking one means standing in front of **91.7%** of their deployment zone. No-man's-land markers sit at **20.4%**. 46% of the legal holding spots can go fully out of sight — pick the spot, not the marker.\n- **Layout 2** — diagonal across the long axis, openness **6/20**. The middle is free real estate: there is a legal spot within range of a central marker that only **4%** of the enemy deployment zone can see. Raiding a home marker costs **40.2%** exposure — real, but payable with one screened unit. Almost anywhere you stand near a marker (90% of legal spots) can be put fully out of sight.\n- **Layout 3** — diagonal across the short axis, openness **4/20**. The middle is free real estate: there is a legal spot within range of a central marker that only **0.9%** of the enemy deployment zone can see. Home markers are a fortress: taking one means standing in front of **54.6%** of their deployment zone. No-man's-land markers sit at **2.7%**. Almost anywhere you stand near a marker (92% of legal spots) can be put fully out of sight.\n\nIf your plan needs enemy ground, **Layout 2** is where it is cheapest (40.2% exposure against 91.7% on Layout 1) — the same raid can be a bargain or a suicide depending on which board you drew.\n\nNumbers are measured on the transcribed sheets: every legal spot within control range of each marker is tested, and the best one is reported — the way a real player looks for the safest place to stand, not the middle of the marker.\n\n## Decision points\n\n- End of round 3 — your last Command-phase checkpoint. Everything after this is timed to your own end of turn.\n- Any turn from 2 — is their home reachable? 10 VP is worth almost any unit you own.\n- Round 5 — grab everything reachable on your own turn. Nothing has to survive.",
  "url": "https://hive-perdita.vercel.app/analysis/disruption--mirror/"
}